Evidence & governance
Where the numbers come from, and what they're allowed to say.
The rule under everything
Every claim traces to something you can check.
A client-facing statement in an Arristal report points back to one of six things: a driver score, a detected signal, a piece of evidence, a named source, a deterministic calculation, or a reviewer's judgement. If a claim cannot be traced to one of those, it does not go in the report.
The paid diagnostic connects a qualified operating signal to company evidence. When the required entity inputs support a visible calculation, the report shows an evidenced exposure range. Otherwise it states what is confirmed, what remains context, and which exact input finance should provide next.
- 01ScoreThe measured driver position.
- 02SignalThe contradiction or weak point the score exposes.
- 03EvidenceThe company figure, named source, or disclosed assumption.
- 04CalculationThe deterministic working behind the financial range.
- 05ReviewThe judgement and limits stated before release.
The evidence we trust, in order
Better evidence wins. Always.
When two sources disagree, the higher one decides. A self-reported figure does not override an audited statement, and a sector reference never overrides a number you can stand behind.
- 01Audited public financialsFiled statements can supply dated entity inputs for a qualified calculation.
- 02Verified client dataOperational KPIs and figures you supply and stand behind.
- 03Self-reported rangesWhat you tell us during the assessment, used as a range, not a point.
- 04External public contextSector, trade, and logistics references. Context only — never the source of a value.
- 05Disclosed assumptionA labelled assumption can explain uncertainty. It cannot originate a company amount.
Your history outranks the sector
Your own trend is the better benchmark.
Where your own history is reliable, it takes priority over a broad sector reference. How your inventory turns or cash conversion moved over three years says more about you than a peer-set median ever could. Sector references provide context; they do not replace your own record or create a company amount.
What benchmarks can and can't do
A benchmark can frame a number. It cannot create one.
A benchmark may
- Put a score in context against a sector range.
- Validate or challenge a figure you reported.
- Widen or narrow how confidently we state a finding.
A benchmark may not
- Be the sole source of a € figure.
- Override a number you can stand behind.
- Carry a claim we cannot point to a source for.
External public context is not peer comparison. Peer comparison is not sold today. Public and sector sources may help interpret a finding, but they cannot establish cause or create a company amount.
External intelligence stays in its lane
Public context informs the reading. It does not move the score.
In the paid modes, and only where there is dated evidence behind it, Arristal draws on public context — country, trade, logistics, and sector conditions. It contextualises, validates, challenges, or reduces our confidence in a finding. It does not create scores, create signals, create financial values, or override your input by default. No external claim appears in a report without a source and a date.
Four current evidence states
The report says what the evidence can support.
Each financial area receives its own evidence state. Only an evidenced exposure range can carry money or enter the matching accounting headline. A paid report remains complete when no range qualifies.
Evidenced
visible calculation
Qualified signal, dated entity inputs, and a displayed derivation.
Confirmed
not yet quantified
The issue is supported, but a named company input is missing.
Contextual
no euro attached
An approved external source informs the reading without proving an entity amount.
Insufficient
evidence gap stated
The available records do not support a firm conclusion.
One-time cash and recurring annual exposure remain separate. Context, unquantified findings, and duplicate economic effects stay outside the headlines.
Confidence, stated plainly
We tell you how sure we are, and act on it.
Every score, signal, and value range carries a confidence view. It decides how strongly we state a conclusion and how wide the range becomes. Low confidence does not get dressed up as certainty.
- High
- Multiple sources agree and the data is current. We proceed after a standard review.
- Moderate
- One evidence class is partial. The report states the limitation and widens the range.
- Low
- Evidence is thin, old, or contradictory. We avoid strong language and route it to a person.
- Escalated
- A reviewer signs off before the report is released. Nothing goes out on autopilot.
Release checks verify the evidence state, signal links, entity inputs, calculation, sources, and artifact parity before delivery.
The method behind the scores sits on the methodology page. If you want to see how a finding reads end to end, the sample report shows the derivation in full.